最近正在读巴菲特给股东的信，从1957开始。当时巴菲特还只是一个27岁的青年投资者，仅有两年正式的职业投资经验。1954-1956年，巴菲特曾经在格雷厄姆的投资公司工作。在那之前，巴菲特提出免费给格雷厄姆工作，但遭到了拒绝。他给股东的信忠实的记录了一个投资者成长的历程。
在1957-1961年的信中，有几段话吸引了我的注意：
基金的目标
“My continual objective in managing partnership funds is to achieve along-term performance record superior to that of the Industrial Average. I believe this Average, over a period of years, will more orless parallel the results of leading investment companies. Unless we do achieve this superior performance there is no reason for existence of the partnerships.”
“我管理合伙基金的一贯目标是取得优于道琼斯工业平均指数的长期业绩。我坚信这一平均指数在长期将与领先的投资公司的业绩相类似。除非我们取得这样优异的业绩，否则我们的合伙基金没有理由存在下去。”
（1960年给合伙人的信）
巴菲特最初的目标是长期业绩超越指数。这个目标至今没有改变。
如何获得超越市场的业绩
“However,I have pointed out that any superior record which we might accomplish should not be expected to be evidenced by a relatively constant advantage in performance compared to the Average. Rather it is likely that if such an advantage is achieved, it will be through better-than-average performance in stable or declining markets and average, or perhaps even poorer- than-average performance in rising markets.”
“但是，我曾经指出，即使我们可能取得优秀的业绩，这也不能证明我们能保持相对稳定的对道琼斯工业平均指数的优势。如果我们获得优势，也是通过在平稳或下跌市场中超出平均的业绩，在上涨的市场中获得平均业绩，甚至有可能是逊于平均的业绩而达到。”
巴菲特告诉自己的合伙人，自己超越市场不是持续稳定的超越，具有稳定的优势，而是在市场不好时超越，在市场狂热时表现一般，甚至逊色。换句话说，战胜市场不是多赢，而是少输。
衡量业绩的标准
“I believe in establishing yardsticks prior to the act; retrospectively, almost anything can be made to look good in relation to something or other.
I have continuously used the Dow-Jones Industrial Average as our measure of par. It is my feeling that three years is a very minimal test of performance, and the best test consists of a period at least that long where the terminal level of the Dow is reasonably close to the initial level.
While the Dow is not perfect (nor is anything else) as a measure of performance, it has the advantage of being widely known, has a long period of continuity, and reflects with reasonable accuracy the experience of investors generally with the market.”
“我坚信在行动前制定标准。因为事后再看，几乎任何事情，相对于某些其他事物，都能显得很好。
我一直用道琼斯工业平均指数作为我们衡量的基准。我感觉三年是检验业绩的最短时间。最佳的检验至少要包括三年的时间，而道琼斯指数的终值与初始值相当接近。
虽然道琼斯指数并不是衡量业绩的完美指标（任何事物都不是），但这个指数有着广为人知，长期的连续性，以及相当准确的反映了市场投资者情况的优势。”
（1961年给合伙人的信）
巴菲特选取指数是为了有一个公平的标准。而且，他认为要评价投资业绩最少要三年的时间，而且最好是在这段时间里市场持平。这样才能体现出投资的真实业绩，而不是短期运气，或者随着市场水涨船高。
保守的投资
“Many people some years back thought they were behaving in the most conservative manner by purchasing medium or long-term municipal or government bonds. This policy has produced substantial market depreciation in many cases, and most certainly has failed to maintain or increase real buying power.
Conscious, perhaps overly conscious, of inflation, many people now feel that they are behaving in a conservative manner by buying blue chip securities almost regardless of price-earnings ratios, dividend yields, etc. Without the benefit of hindsight as in the bond example, I feel this course of action is fraught with danger. There is nothing at all conservative, in my opinion, about speculating as to just how high a multiplier a greedy and capricious public will put on earnings.”
“True conservatism is only possible through knowledge and reason.”
“多年前很多人认为购买中期或者长期政府债券是最保守的做法。这种方式造成了大量的损失，而且肯定无法保持或者增加真实购买力。
由于意识到通胀，甚至过于担心通胀，很多人认为他们不顾市盈率、股息率等指标购买大型蓝筹股是保守的做法。即使不考虑过去债券的例子，我也认为这种做法充满危险。在我看来，投机毫无保守可言，投机只不过是猜想贪婪而变化无常的公众能给盈利多高的倍数。”
“真正的保守惟有通过知识和理性才有可能。”
（1961年给合伙人的信）
50年前的忠告同样适合今天的人们。不顾租售比，不考虑价格买房的人并不是在通胀条件下进行保守的保值投资。预期房价不断上涨，其实就是预期贪婪而变化无常的公众将给房子支付更高的价格。
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