财新传媒 财新传媒

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社会的公式

不幸的是,高通胀造成的问题不仅困扰投资者,而且影响整个社会。投资收入只占国民收入的一小部分。如果只是实际投资回报为零,而人均实际收入能以健康的速度增长,整个社会的公平与正义也许会进一步发展。

市场经济给参与者不成比例的回报。嗓音、解剖结构、身体力量或者智力等天赋可以让人从未来国民产出中得到巨额的财富(股票、债券和其他资本)。投对了胎也能在一出生就拥有一生无尽的财富。如果通胀造成的投资零回报能劫富济贫。从这些有着巨额财富的幸运儿手中,把国民产出的更大一部分转给一样努力工作,但却没那么幸运的公民。那么,这对一个公平的世界不会有什么损害,上天也不会干预的。

但是,这种劫富济贫的效果并不明显。员工报酬已经是分红的28倍。而很多这些分红会流向养老基金、非营利组织,比如大学和并不富裕的个人投资者。在这种情况下,如果我们把所有富裕的股东的分红都转移到员工报酬里。这种事情我们只能做一次。因为这是杀鸡取卵。这样的转移对实际工资的提高还比不上我们过去从一年的经济增长中获得的多。

巴菲特:《通货膨胀如何欺诈股票投资者》(十五)

The social equation

Unfortunately, the major problems from high inflation rates flow not to investors but to society as a whole. Investment income is a small portion of national income, and if per capita real income could grow at a healthy rate alongside zero real investment returns, social justice might well be advanced.

A market economy creates some lopsided payoffs to participants. The right endowment of vocal chords, anatomical structure, physical strength, or mental powers can produce enormous piles of claim checks (stocks, bonds, and other forms of capital) on future national output. Proper selection of ancestors similarly can result in lifetime supplies of such tickets upon birth. If zero real investment returns diverted a bit greater portion of the national output from such stockholders to equally worthy and hardworking citizens lacking jackpot-producing talents, it would seem unlikely to pose such an insult to an equitable world as to risk Divine Intervention.

But the potential for real improvement in the welfare of workers at the expense of affluent stockholders is not significant. Employee compensation already totals twenty-eight times the amount paid out in dividends, and a lot of those dividends now go to pension funds, nonprofit institutions such as universities, and individual stockholders who are not affluent. Under these circumstances, if we now shifted all dividends of wealthy stockholders into wages - something we could do only once, like killing a cow (or, if you prefer, a pig) - we would increase real wages by less than we used to obtain from one year's growth of the economy.

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“知之者不如好之者,好之者不如乐之者。”   乐于此,贝乐斯。 职业投资者,合伙人。

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