通货膨胀率 - 一个没人知道的数字

通货膨胀率到底会是多少？这是个重要的问题，但是没有人知道。政客不知道，经济学家不知道，权威评论家也不知道。这些人在几年前还觉得，只要这里那里轻微调节一下，失业率和通货膨胀率就会像训练过的海豹一样做出反应。

但是，很多迹象并不支持稳定的价格：事实上，通货膨胀现在是世界性的。我们社会的主要集团倾向于利用他们对竞选的影响，转移，而不是解决经济问题。如果可以推迟，即使是最关键的问题（比如能源和核扩散）他们也不愿解决。我们的政治系统鼓励短期行为。为了重新当选，立法者做出有利于短期，但却最终会带来长期痛苦的决定。

绝大多数政客都强烈反对通胀，但他们都坚定支持制造通胀的政策。（但是这种精神分裂还没有让他们远离现实。众议院已经确保他们的养老金与退休后生活成本变化挂钩。这与私人部门的一般做法可不一样。）

讨论未来通货膨胀率往往会触及货币和财政政策的敏感性。这两者是决定任何精确的通胀公式结果的重要变量。但是问题的根源在于：和平时期的通货膨胀是个政治问题而不是个经济问题。人的行为才是最关键的。货币不是关键。政客也是人，肯定会顾及自己的利益。选择短期利益确保下界继续当选，还是选择长远利益为下一代着想而失去竞选？他们通常会做出确保自己利益的选择。

这种泛泛而论无法得出精确的数字。但是，对我来说，将来通货膨胀率很有可能会在7%的平均水平。我希望我的预测是错的。这个预测确实可能是错的。对未来的预测通常告诉我们更多有关预测者的信息而不是未来。你可以自己选择把你自己的通货膨胀率代入投资者的公式。但是，如果你预测未来2%-3%的通货膨胀率，那你的视角肯定和我不同。

所以，我们的结论出来了：在扣除通胀及税之前股票有12%的回报；扣税但不扣除通胀，股票还有7%的回报；扣除税和通胀后股票可能为零回报。这可不像是一个令人激动人心的公式。

作为一个普通股票投资者，你将有更多钱。但是，你将不会有更多的购买力。这可不像富兰克林（“存的一分就是挣的一分”）和弗雷德里曼（“一个人可以消费，也可以投入他的资本。”）所说的。

巴菲特：《通货膨胀如何欺诈股票投资者》（十三）

The number nobody knows which brings us to the crucial question - the inflation rate. No one knows the answer on this one - including the politicians, economists, and Establishment pundits, who felt, a few years back, that with slight nudges here and there unemployment and inflation rates would respond like trained seals.

But many signs seem negative for stable prices: the fact that inflation is now worldwide; the propensity of major groups in our society to utilize their electoral muscle to shift, rather than solve, economic problems ; the demonstrated unwillingness to tackle even the most vital problems (e.g., energy and nuclear proliferation) if they can be postponed; and a political system that rewards legislators with reelection if their actions appear to produce short-term benefits even though their ultimate imprint will be to compound long-term pain.

Most of those in political office, quite understandably, are firmly against inflation and firmly in favor of policies producing it. (This schizophrenia hasn't caused them to lose touch with reality, however; Congressmen have made sure that their pensions - unlike practically all granted in the private sector - are indexed to cost-of-living changes after retirement.)

Discussions regarding future inflation rates usually probe the subtleties of monetary and fiscal policies. These are important variables in determining the outcome of any specific inflationary equation. But, at the source, peacetime inflation is a political problem, not an economic problem. Human behavior, not monetary behavior, is the key. And when very human politicians choose between the next election and the next generation, it's clear what usually happens.

Such broad generalizations do not produce precise numbers. However, it seems quite possible to me that inflation rates will average 7 percent in future years. I hope this forecast proves to be wrong. And it may well be. Forecasts usually tell us more of the forecaster than of the future. You are free to factor your own inflation rate into the investor's equation. But if you foresee a rate averaging 2 percent or 3 percent, you are wearing different glasses than I am.

So there we are: 12 percent before taxes and inflation; 7 percent after taxes and before inflation; and maybe zero percent after taxes and inflation. It hardly sounds like a formula that will keep all those cattle stampeding on TV.

As a common stockholder you will have more dollars, but you may have no more purchasing power. Out with Ben Franklin ("a penny saved is a penny earned") and in with Milton Friedman ("a man might as well consume his capital as invest it").