精读《证券分析》：股票分析到底有没有用？-贝乐斯-财新网

股票市场千变万化，股市的投机成分很多。在这种情况下所作的分析很难有令人信服的结论和令人满意的结果。即使结论看上去令人信服，也有可能是误导。那么，股票分析到底有没有用？

格雷厄姆这样问道：“股票分析在什么程度上是一种有效的，真正有价值的活动？在什么程度上只不过是一项空洞却必不可少的仪式，用来参与对商业和股市之未来的赌博。”

“To what extent is common-stock analysis a valid and truly valuable exercise, and to what extent is it an empty but indispensable ceremony attending the wagering of money on the future of business and of the stock market?”

他的回答很不乐观：“对典型的股票——也就是从清单里随机抽出的样本进行分析，无论有多详细，都不太可能产生可靠的结论，用来判断股票的吸引力或者真实价值。但是，在个别的情况下，通过分析的过程也许可以产生相当确信的结论。”

“As far as the typical common stock is concerned—an issue picked at random from the list—an analysis, however elaborate, is unlikely to yield a dependable conclusion as to its attractiveness or its real value. But in individual cases, the exhibit may be such as to permit reasonably confident conclusions to be drawn from the processes of analysis.”

他的推论是：“分析只有对特殊的股票才是有效的或者有科学价值的。对于大多数股票来说，分析必须被看作是某种可疑的投机判断的辅助工具，或者虽然无法计算出价值但是为了必须算出个数来所进行的虚幻的方法。”

“It would follow that analysis is of positive or scientific value only in the case of the exceptional common stock, and that for common stocks in general it must be regarded either as a somewhat questionable aid to speculative judgment or as a highly illusory method of aiming at values that defy calculation and that must somehow be calculated none the less.”

这样的话语出现在名为《证券分析》的书里，颇具讽刺意味。但是，这也反映出格雷厄姆对证券分析所持的现实态度。我认为格雷厄姆下面的话不仅对证券分析，对现实生活也很有意义。

“掌握真理总是有益的，但据此行事则未必总是明智的，在华尔街尤其是如此。”

It is always good to know the truth, but it may not always be wise to act upon it, particularly in Wall Street.

格雷厄姆对证券分析的局限性的认识非常清楚：

“一定要记住，分析师所揭示的事实，第一，不一定是全部事实；第二，不一定是不变的事实。他研究的结果只是对过去的描述，只不过更接近正确的版本。当他获得信息时，或者当市场终于要对信息作出反应时，这个信息可能已经失去了相关的意义。”

And it must always be remembered that the truth that the analyst uncovers is first of all not the whole truth and, secondly, not the immutable truth. The result of his study is only a more nearly correct version of the past. His information may have lost its relevance by the time he acquires it, or in any event by the time the market place is finally ready to respond to it.

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