专家驳高速铁路拖累中国经济论不会导致债务危机

人民网—人民日报海外版 苗俊杰 马献忠

2009年12月26日中午12时45分，从广州开来的G1002次列车稳稳地停靠在武汉车站，全程体验这段“陆地飞行”的笔者直到此时还有些眩惑：原来11个小时的车程就这样缩短到了2小时45分？这也宣告了世界上运营速度最快的高铁——武(汉)广(州)高速铁路的开通。

平均350公里的时速，引来了英国《每日邮报》“比欧洲之星(西方高速列车的代表)更让你嫉妒”的惊叹，同时也引发了“高投入将带来高风险，进而拖累中国经济”的疑问。而笔者近日走访的多位专家学者，对此持不同意见。他们普遍认为，高铁不但不会“拖垮”经济，反而是推动经济快速发展的引擎。

不会出现“债务危机”

应对国际金融危机以来，中央政府投入的4万亿元及地方配套的18万亿元，相当一部分被投入到交通运输行业。其中，在高速铁路建设方面，中央、地方政府、企业多方联手加大投资的格局业已形成。原本计划在未来11年完成的4万公里铁路建设目标，在2012年前就要完成91%。不少人对此产生了疑虑：如此巨额投入，会不会带来高风险、造成债务危机，进而会拖累经济发展呢？

谈及这个问题，中国交通运输协会常务副会长、亚洲运输协会副会长、国际物流与运输学会院士王德荣的语气十分坚决：“我国基础设施建设处于工业化中期，高铁投资不会形成像美国‘次贷危机’那样的‘铁路债务危机’。美国产生‘次贷危机’，原因在于其投资的是具有大量泡沫的虚拟经济，而我国高速铁路投资的是实体经济，不是产能过剩资产。恰恰相反，高铁是适合我国国情的有用资产，随着时间的推移，其经济效益和社会效益呈递增态势。至于其投资债务如银行贷款等，可以逐步分阶段偿还。”

国务院发展研究中心张政军研究员认为，以基础设施投资为中心的财政政策促进了经济的恢复，避免了产能进一步过剩。但在今后宏观调控政策中，还应积极采取措施，将重点放在优化“需求结构”和提升“产业结构”上，处理好基础设施的公共物品供给和社会保障等公共物品供给的关系，处理好基础设施发展和经济发展阶段的关系。同时，做好基础设施建设的统筹规划，处理好基础设施内部结构问题。比如高速铁路、高速公路以及航空业三者发展的关系。避免重复建设，造成恶性竞争，导致有限资源的浪费。

助推区域经济发展

高铁建设不仅不会带来债务危机，还会带动经济快速发展。在王德荣看来，我国修建及规划中的高铁基本上都位于经济较为发达的大城市，其建设会与经济发展互动，形成良性循环。

运营一年多的京津高铁也印证了这一点，显示出高铁建设在扩大内需、改善生活和增加就业等方面的明显促进效应。

天津市发改委经济发展研究所第一研究室主任赵立华认为，北京和天津两个人口超过千万的大城市比肩而立，而京津高铁使两个城市在“半小时经济圈”内形成优势互补，产业对接，由“双核”形成“单拳”，引领了区域经济的发展。天津市商务委员会副主任赵阔江也证实，京津高铁开通后的这段时间，也是天津市一批大项目、好项目落户最快、建设最好的时期。

而新近开通的武广高铁，也将对相关区域的经济社会发展产生深刻影响。铁道部新闻发言人王勇平说：“武广高铁运营后，武广铁路客货分线运输成为可能。武广高铁与在建的沪汉蓉铁路大通道、沪昆铁路客运专线等铁路相连，可使区域内的铁路网更加灵活，与全国的客货交流更加方便和快捷。尤其是实现客货分线运行，将大幅释放既有京广线能力，有效缓解货运能力紧张状况，最大限度地满足关系国计民生的煤炭、石油、粮食等重点物资的运输需要。”

优化资源配置产业布局

对于近年高铁发展呈现的“井喷”式发展，王德荣认为，高铁在大发展过程中遇到全球性金融危机，国家进一步加大投资和建设力度，借高铁建设之力进一步拉动内需，只不过是说明中国高铁“生逢其时”而已，并非仅仅是为了拉动内需而投资高铁。

大规模的高铁投资有利于促进产业结构和区域经济布局的调整。以将在2010年完工的京沪高铁为例，这条世界上一次建成线路最长、标准最高的高速铁路，纵贯北京、天津、河北、山东、安徽、江苏、上海7省市，连接环渤海和长江三角洲两大经济区。这些省市面积占到全国的6.5%，人口占全国的1/4，GDP占全国的40%，是我国经济发展最活跃和最具潜力的地区，客货运输需求旺盛。可以预期，这条铁路在支撑区域协调发展、优化资源配置和产业布局、构建高效的综合运输体系、降低社会物流成本、促进城镇一体化进程和经济可持续发展等方面，将发挥巨大的作用。

专家还强调，我国高铁的盈利点并不仅仅在客运上，技术出口业已进入实施阶段。

铁道部副总工程师张曙光说，目前，中国铁路在高速动车组、高速铁路基础设施建造技术和既有线提速技术等方面都达到了世界先进水平，已经形成集设计、施工、制造、运营管理于一体的成套先进技术，其在铁路研发、建设、管理过程中形成的一整套高铁技术，已经具备了“走出去”的实力。

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查了查英国《每日邮报》(Daily Mail)，文章根本没有提及债务问题，整个主题是惊叹中国只用4年就修好了如此一条世界最高速的铁路。到底是谁质疑“高投入将带来高风险，进而拖累中国经济”呢？经过一番查找，终于发现了人民日报专家所批驳的彭博通讯社(Bloomberg)的原文。以下文章仅供批判用：)

China’s Speeding Bullet-Train Program May Brake Economic Growth

By Bloomberg News

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Train C2019 covers the 120 kilometers between Beijing and Tianjin in 30 minutes, passing peasants in fields burning corn stalks and warrens of shacks occupied by people who aren’t sharing in China’s economic boom.

The line is part of China’s 2 trillion yuan ($292.9 billion) investment in a nationwide high-speed passenger-rail network that may be too much train, too fast.

The time savings that the new system delivers may not justify the cost, creating a potential drag on long-term growth, said Michael Pettis, former head of emerging markets at Bear Stearns Cos. The losers are Chinese consumers, who will have to wait for new health-care and old-age benefits while the government focuses on public-works spending, he said.

While the expanded service will be a “trophy” for China, the country “already has probably the best infrastructure in the world for its level of development,” said Pettis, now a finance professor at Peking University.

China accelerated its high-speed-rail development plan last year in the wake of the global financial crisis, saying it would increase the passenger network by a third to 16,000 kilometers (9,944 miles) by 2020.

Montreal-based Bombardier Inc., the world’s largest maker of passenger locomotives, and Munich-based Siemens AG are helping to build the system. Bombardier’s Chinese joint venture won a $4 billion contract in September to build 80 high-speed trains. Siemens, Europe’s largest engineering company, and Chinese partners received a 750 million-euro ($1.08 billion) order in March for 100 trains.

Most Expensive

The centerpiece of the service is a 1,318-kilometer line with 16 kilometers of tunnels that will cut the trip between Beijing and Shanghai to five hours from 10. Set to open by 2012, the 221 billion-yuan project currently employs 127,000 workers and is the most expensive engineering program in Chinese history, eclipsing the Yangtze River’s Three Gorges Dam, the world’s biggest hydroelectric project, which cost 203.9 billion yuan.

Spending on railroads is growing faster than on any other area of investment, rising 80.7 percent to 464.6 billion yuan in the first 11 months of the year from the same period in 2008, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics.

Investment in fixed assets such as factories and the rail network accounted for more than 95 percent of China’s 7.7 percent growth in the first three quarters of 2009 and made up 45 percent of gross domestic product, which is higher than any major economy in history, according to Morgan Stanley Asia Chairman Stephen Roach.

‘Ridiculous, Unsustainable’

Without a surge in consumer spending and with export growth stalled, investment must rise even further to stoke growth, he said in a Dec. 18 Beijing speech.

“These are ridiculous, unsustainable numbers for any economy,” he said.

China may be hit with a slowdown next year as the impact of the investment-led expansion wears off and shipments to the U.S., the traditional external source of growth, fail to pick up, Roach said in an October report. He didn’t specify how much growth might slow.

Some economists say the high-speed network is symbolic of a stimulus program that places too much emphasis on infrastructure spending and not enough on raising living standards in a Communist country where the average urban worker made 28,898 yuan last year, a tenth of the $39,653 average wage in the U.S., according todata from the U.S. and Chinese governments.

Most Chinese rail travelers won’t pay the premium to ride on the fast trains, Zhao Jian, a professor of economics at Beijing Jiaotong University, said in a September interview on Chinese television.

Slower Train

A second-class one-way ticket for the half-hour Beijing-Tianjin trip costs 58 yuan, about three-quarters of the workers’ average daily pay. A so-called hard-seat ticket on a slower train, which covers the distance in two hours, sells for 11 yuan.

Passenger reluctance means revenue from the high-speed lines won’t be enough to service the debt if railway expansion continues at its current pace, Zhao said in the TV interview. China’s Ministry of Railways has 383 billion yuan in bonds outstanding.

“If America had its subprime crisis, in China we have a railroad-debt crisis, or you could call it a government-debt crisis,” Zhao said in the TV interview.

China’s railway ministry says the new system makes economic sense: A two-track bullet train can transport 160 million people a year, compared with 80 million for a four-lane highway, it said in a Dec. 21 faxed statement.

“The safest, fastest, most economical, most environmentally friendly, most reliable mode of transport is high-speed rail,” the ministry said.

Tribute to Mao

The fast trains leave from Beijing South railway station, a new glass and steel structure that looks like a flying saucer. The slower trains depart from the half-century-old Beijing Station, where the clock tower marks the hour by playing “The East is Red,” a tribute to Mao Zedong that was popular during China’s 1966-76 Cultural Revolution.

Sitting on the stiff green benches in car 13 of train 4401, Yuan Hong, 40, says she doesn’t mind the old line’s extra 90 minutes.

“It’s a huge price difference,” says Yuan, who works as a cleaner in Tianjin. “This is the train the common people take.”

--Michael Forsythe. With assistance from Kevin Hamlin in Beijing. Editors: Melinda Grenier, Bill Austin